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                        • Contact

                          Beating the Business Cycle

                          Navigate the Road Ahead

                          Beating the Business Cycle

                          After ECRI predicted the 2001 recession, there was popular demand for a better understanding of our approach. This led to the publication of Beating the Business Cycle, written by ECRI co-founders Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji.

                          Written in a straightforward, accessible style, the book reveals just how advanced the state of the art in cyclical forecasting has become. It also shows how decision makers at all levels — managers, small business owners, and individuals — profit when they are not blindsided by economic cycle turns.

                          Download Key Excerpts

                          • The Resurrection of Risk

                            The Resurrection of Risk

                            pp. 3-16

                            A shift from boom to bust, from economic expansion to recession, can be painful, even tragic, for those blindsided by the downturn. Whether a mild recession or a major depression lies ahead, you can be forewarned and forearmed, protecting your interests by staying ahead of the crowd.

                          • Definition of The Business Cycle

                            Business Cycle Definition

                            pp. 69-72

                            In contrast to simplistic “rules,” the classical definition of business cycles is a sophisticated description of what occurs at cyclical upturns and downturns. This knowledge will serve you well the next time confusion reigns about whether a recession has begun or if a recovery is for real.

                          • How the Leading Indicators Compare

                            How the Leading Indicators Compare

                            pp. 82-84

                            As a review of recent history reveals, leading indicators are not all created equal. Understanding their evolution over more than a century provides critical insights.

                          • Dangers of Data Fitting

                            Dangers of Data Fitting

                            pp. 90-93

                            Many economists tend to create models or simplified representations of the economy that assume recent trends will continue into the future — a surefire recipe for missing an economic cycle turning point.

                          • Putting it All Together

                            Putting It All Together

                            pp. 116-124

                            By the turn of century, our observations crystallized to form the multidimensional framework that we call the economic cycle cube. It gives us a representation of what is going on in the economy's complex dynamic system.

                          Beating the Business Cycle is available as a digital edition.

                          ECRI History

                          ECRI History

                          网上棋牌游戏哪个好Three generations of cycle research.

                          View the Timeline

                          Testimonial

                          ECRI has had a very stellar record. They've been making pretty bold calls and going against the conventional wisdom. So far their record has been one of the most impressive, and has been written up in the press as well as talked about in policy circles.
                          - IMF
                          This approach works like a charm.
                          - Forbes Magazine
                          [T]he Economic Cycle Research Institute [is] a private forecasting group with an excellent track record.
                          - The New York Times
                          I find that ECRI's historical knowledge of economic cycles and data is almost as important to me as your indicators of future cycles.
                          - ECRI Client
                          (ECRI's) forecast of the [Great] recession helped us anticipate reduced merchandise sales; we proactively revised our inventory forecasts down months ago, and that has helped to greatly minimize the inventory swell and need for markdowns.
                          - Fortune 100 Company
                          ECRI [is] the most accurate forecasting institution in the world.
                          - Sydney Morning Herald
                                     

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                          The clarity and conviction to break from the crowd at the right time.

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