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                              FAQs

                              What are the lead times of your indexes?

                              In general, leading index lead times tend to be asymmetric, being longer at business cycle peaks (i.e., before recessions) and shorter at business cycle troughs (i.e., before recoveries). However, the lead times of leading index growth rates tend to be fairly symmetric, being more or less similar at growth rate cycle peaks and troughs网上棋牌游戏哪个好 (i.e., before downturns and upturns in economic growth, respectively).

                              While the actual leads vary to some extent from one turning point to the next, ECRI’s different leading indexes exhibit somewhat different leads:

                              • Long leading indexes typically lead turning points by around two to three quarters

                              • A “moderate” lead means the index typically leads turning points by around a couple of quarters

                              网上棋牌游戏哪个好• Short leading indexes typically lead turning points by around one to two quarters

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                              - Alan Abelson, Barron's
                              ECRI has had a very stellar record. They've been making pretty bold calls and going against the conventional wisdom. So far their record has been one of the most impressive, and has been written up in the press as well as talked about in policy circles.
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                              (ECRI's) forecast of the [Great] recession helped us anticipate reduced merchandise sales; we proactively revised our inventory forecasts down months ago, and that has helped to greatly minimize the inventory swell and need for markdowns.
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                              I have to pay attention to those people and indicators that have pointed in the right direction - even when they've gone against the crowd (and my opinion at the time). One such outfit is the Economic Cycle Research Institute, whose various leading indicators actually have done just that - lead where things were headed.
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